Time series momentum: Is it there?

Dashan Huang*, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang, Guofu Zhou

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Time series momentum (TSM) refers to the predictability of the past 12-month return on the next one-month return and is the focus of several recent influential studies. This paper shows that asset-by-asset time series regressions reveal little evidence of TSM, both in- and out-of-sample. While the t-statistic in a pooled regression appears large, it is not statistically reliable as it is less than the critical values of parametric and nonparametric bootstraps. From an investment perspective, the TSM strategy is profitable, but its performance is virtually the same as that of a similar strategy that is based on historical sample mean and does not require predictability. Overall, the evidence on TSM is weak, particularly for the large cross section of assets.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)774-794
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Financial Economics
Volume135
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2020

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Strategy and Management

User-Defined Keywords

  • Pooled regression
  • Return predictability
  • Risk premium
  • Time series momentum

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