Theories of risk: Testing investor behavior on the taiwan stock and stock index futures markets

Ephraim Clark, Zhuo Qiao*, Wing Keung Wong

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

    30 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This article considers four utility functions—concave, convex, S-shaped, and reverse S-shaped—to analyze the behavior of different types of investors on the Taiwan stock index and its corresponding index futures. Using stochastic dominance (SD) rules, we show that the existence of all four investor types is plausible. Risk averters prefer spot to futures, whereas risk seekers prefer futures to spot. Investors with S-shaped utility functions prefer spot (futures) to futures (spot) when markets move upward (downward). Investors with reverse S-shaped utility functions prefer futures (spot) to spot (futures) when markets move upward (downward). We show that both spot and futures markets can exist when only risk averters are present, but futures can dominate spot only if there is some risk-seeking behavior. These results are robust with respect to subperiods, spot returns including dividends, and diversification. (JEL C14, G12, G15)

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)907-924
    Number of pages18
    JournalEconomic Inquiry
    Volume54
    Issue number2
    Early online date28 Oct 2015
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Apr 2016

    Scopus Subject Areas

    • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
    • Economics and Econometrics

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