The Influence of Tropical Cyclones on Mixed-Population Flood Frequency Analysis

Liangyi Wang, Xihui Gu*, Louise J. Slater, Jianfeng Li, Yangchen Lai, Xiang Zhang, Juan Dai, Ying Chen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Abstract

Floods induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and their frequency analysis have received much attention at the regional scale, but little is known about the role of TCs in the mixed flood frequency analysis at the global scale, which is the key for hazard management. Here, we investigated the influence of TCs on the upper tail of flood frequency estimates using discharge observations at 3883 stations influenced by TCs alongside global discharge simulations from the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). Our results show that TC-induced floods in inland areas are not always found along the TC path but can be located about 1000 km ahead, which is linked to TC-induced predecessor rain events. Extreme floods associated with TCs are generally larger in coastal areas compared to those in inland areas, whereas TC-induced floods in some inland areas tend to be more extreme relative to their local flood magnitude. The flood peaks generated by TCs and other mechanisms compose a mixed population flood series. However, the largest flood peaks in coastal areas are usually affected by TCs. These large TC-induced flood peaks play an important role in making the upper tail of the flood frequency curve heavier. In regions affected by TCs, the flood magnitude with an n-yr return period is greater when estimated from TC-induced floods only. Therefore, regions (especially inland regions) should thoroughly consider the extremity of TC-induced flooding when improving hydraulic infrastructures to ensure a more conservative design, thereby enhancing the safety of these hydraulic projects.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)17-33
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Hydrometeorology
Volume26
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2025

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Atmospheric Science

User-Defined Keywords

  • Flood events
  • Hydrology
  • Tropical cyclones

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