The impact of multiple infrastructure investments on cross-border economic integration

The completion of major new infrastructures has transformed inter-city connectivity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA). Whilst it is too early to derive any results, this paper explores the challenges in modelling the impact of simultaneous multi-modal infrastructure investments in a cross-border context looking in particular at the impact on economic integration. The paper proposes measures of accessibility and connectivity for use in such a multi-modal context, recognising the unique characteristics of the cross-border arrangements between the PRC and the Hong Kong and Macau SARs. On the basis of these changes and using information on regional economic structures we explore the potential for further integration and the likely consequences of this, on mobility, future connectivity and economic performance. One key question is the extent to which such integration can derive solely from the transport improvements or will require a range of accompanying measures to ensure maximum advantage from the opportunities created.