The future of the international system – Part 2

This study examines the emerging fragmentation of the international system into six major geopolitical dominions: the United States, Germany-led Europe, Russia, China, India, and Iran. Each dominion leverages its unique geography-enabled advantages, combined with strategic tools such as military power, economic statecraft, and soft power to assert regional influence and compete globally.

The United States maintains primacy through a selective global presence, while Germany guides the EU with economic and normative power. Russia employs hybrid warfare and energy diplomacy to maintain its Eurasian influence. China pursues maritime expansion and connectivity through the Belt and Road Initiative. India emphasises strategic autonomy and multi-alignment in the Indo-Pacific. Iran uses asymmetric tactics and proxy networks to shape the dynamics of the Middle East.

This paper highlights two key competition zones: Africa, rich in resources and strategic locations, and the Arctic, which is emerging as a resource-rich, strategically vital region due to climate change. This fragmentation signals a shift from a universal post-war order to a multipolar world marked by regional-power competition.