@article{0a9d6e59e5a94bbbb1a608fd7e69881b,
title = "The changing nature and projection of floods across Australia",
abstract = "Changes in peak magnitude, volume, frequency and duration of floods obtained from a peak-over-threshold sampling in 780 unregulated catchments show significant differences between northern and southern Australia over 1975–2012. Increases of the flood properties are mainly located in northern Australia, while decreases are mostly in southern Australia. These changes could be dominated by inter-annual and/or decadal variability of floods. The multidimensional behaviors of flood change across Australia can be described by three distinct groups (i.e. no changes, increases and decreases in all flood properties), showing strong geographic cohesion. The geographical consistency between the changing patterns of flood properties and spatial patterns of vapor transport anomalies during the El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) positive phase could partly explain the geographic cohesion of flood changes. In a warmer future, the observed decreases in floods in southern Australia are projected to continue with high model agreement, while only magnitude and volume of floods in northern Australia are projected to increase but with high uncertainties. The diametric changes in flood magnitude between northern and southern Australia are projected to be more evident in extreme (i.e. 50-year) floods than small (i.e. 5- and 20-year) floods.",
keywords = "Flood frequency, Flood magnitude, Flood prediction, Flood volume, Flooding behaviors",
author = "Xihui Gu and Qiang Zhang and Jianfeng LI and Jianyu Liu and Xu, {Chong Yu} and Peng Sun",
note = "Funding Information: This work is financially supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program Grant of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19070402 ), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2019YFA0606900 and 2018YFA0605603 ), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants Nos. U1911205 , 41901041 and 41771536 ), the Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41621061 ), the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No. 51425903 ), and the General Research Fund from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, China (Grant No. HKBU12303517 ). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme{\textquoteright}s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. We thank the ISI-MIP coordination team for their efforts in producing, coordinating, and making the model outputs publically available. Many thanks are given to NASA/GSFC for producing and making available the GLDAS soil moisture data. The observed streamflow data used are available at https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP113194 and http://www.bom.gov.au/water/hrs/index.shtml . The outputs of ISI-MIP are available at https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/esgf-ceda/ . Monthly soil moisture data from GLDAS are obtained at https://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?keywords=GLDAS . The climate indices data are available from the Earth System Research Laboratory at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/ , and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data are available at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html . Our cordial gratitude should be extended to the editor, Prof. Dr. Emmanouil Anagnostou, and anonymous reviewers for their professional and pertinent comments and revision suggestions, which are greatly helpful for further quality improvement of this current manuscript. Funding Information: This work is financially supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program Grant of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19070402), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2019YFA0606900 and 2018YFA0605603), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants Nos. U1911205, 41901041 and 41771536), the Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41621061), the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No. 51425903), and the General Research Fund from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, China (Grant No. HKBU12303517). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. We thank the ISI-MIP coordination team for their efforts in producing, coordinating, and making the model outputs publically available. Many thanks are given to NASA/GSFC for producing and making available the GLDAS soil moisture data. The observed streamflow data used are available at https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP113194 and http://www.bom.gov.au/water/hrs/index.shtml. The outputs of ISI-MIP are available at https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/esgf-ceda/. Monthly soil moisture data from GLDAS are obtained at https://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?keywords=GLDAS. The climate indices data are available from the Earth System Research Laboratory at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/, and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data are available at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html. Our cordial gratitude should be extended to the editor, Prof. Dr. Emmanouil Anagnostou, and anonymous reviewers for their professional and pertinent comments and revision suggestions, which are greatly helpful for further quality improvement of this current manuscript.",
year = "2020",
month = may,
doi = "10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124703",
language = "English",
volume = "584",
journal = "Journal of Hydrology",
issn = "0022-1694",
publisher = "Elsevier",
}