The 2015 General Election in Wales

This paper examines the 2015 UK general election in Wales. It first outlines the political background to the election, before going on to assess the content and conduct of the campaign and the parties’ relative success in targeting their campaigning efforts. The results are then examined in detail: these show that while Labour, for the twentieth successive general election in Wales, won the most votes and a majority of seats, it also suffered an unexpected net loss of seats; meanwhile the Conservatives won more seats in Wales than at any election since the heyday of Thatcherism. UKIP confirmed their
arrival as a serious element of party politics in Wales, but the Liberal Democrats lost more than two-thirds of their 2010 vote. British Election Study data is then used to model the main factors shaping patterns of party support. Finally, the conclusion assesses the implications of the 2105 election for the future of party politics in Wales, and for the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election.