The 2007-2008 U.S. recession: What did the real-time google trends data tell the United States?

Tao Chen, Erin P K SO, Liang Wu, Isabel Kit Ming Yan

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    23 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In the extant literature of business cycle predictions, the signals for business cycle turning points are generally issued with a lag of at least 5 months. In this paper, we make use of a novel and timely indicator-the Google search volume data-to help to improve the timeliness of business cycle turning point identification. We identify multiple query terms to capture the real-time public concern on the aggregate economy, the credit market, and the labor market condition. We incorporate the query indices in a Markov-switching framework and successfully "nowcast" the peak date within a month that the turning occurred.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)395-403
    Number of pages9
    JournalContemporary Economic Policy
    Volume33
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2015

    Scopus Subject Areas

    • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
    • Economics and Econometrics
    • Public Administration

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'The 2007-2008 U.S. recession: What did the real-time google trends data tell the United States?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this