Statistical models for time sequences data mining

In this paper, we present an adaptive modelling technique for studying past behaviors of objects and predicting the near future events. Our approach is to define a sliding window (of different window sizes) over a time sequence and build autoregression models from subsequences in different windows. The models are representations of past behaviors of the sequence objects. We can use the AR coefficients as features to index subsequences to facilitate the query of subsequences with similar behaviors. We can use a clustering algorithm to group time sequences on their similarity in the feature space. We can also use the AR models for prediction within different windows. Our experiments show that the adaptive model can give better prediction than non-adaptive models.