Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions

Peter Sherman, Meng GAO, Shaojie Song, Alex T. Archibald, Nathan Luke Abraham, Jean François Lamarque, Drew Shindell, Gregory Faluvegi, Michael B. McElroy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 % of India's precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation models (GCMs) could improve predictability of observed future precipitation changes. The aims here are (1) to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and (2) to determine the roles of local and regional emissions. For (1), we study the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project experiments. We find that the precipitation response to changes in black carbon is highly uncertain with a large intermodel spread due in part to model differences in simulating changes in cloud vertical profiles. Effects from sulfate are clearer; increased sulfate reduces Indian precipitation, a consistency through all of the models studied here. For (2), we study bespoke simulations, with reduced Chinese and/or Indian emissions in three GCMs. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ∼20 %) is found only when both countries' sulfur emissions are regulated, which has been driven in large part by dynamic shifts in the location of convective regions in India. These changes have the potential to restore a portion of the precipitation losses induced by sulfate forcing over the last few decades.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3593-3605
Number of pages13
JournalAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume21
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 9 Mar 2021

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this