Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy

Xiao-Guang Yue, Xue-Feng Shao *, Rita Yi Man Li, M. James C. Crabbe , Lili Mi, Siyan Hu , Julien Baker, Liting Liu , Kechen Dong

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

    32 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number66
    JournalJournal of Risk and Financial Management
    Volume13
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 3 Apr 2020

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