Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow

Jianfeng LI*, Xiaogang Shi, Yongqin David Chen, Lu Zhang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The conventional abrupt change-based assessments of climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow require the existence of change point(s) and stationarity assumption. However, hydrological conditions may not change abruptly at a certain time, but rather evolve gradually over a period. We propose a trend-based time-varying approach that does not require these prerequisites to assess the climate- and human-induced impacts on hydrological conditions in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, which can be applied in other basins. The trend-based time-varying approach detects human activities exert a significant seasonal regulation on streamflow (i.e. 113% of the decreases in the wet season and 93% of the increases in the dry season) and 101% of the reductions in flood peaks in the East River Basin, the sub-basin with the highest ratio of total reservoir storage capacity to river discharge in the PRB. Climate change contributes to 77% of the increases in flood peaks in the West River Basin, a large sub-basin with lower flood control levels.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2043-2056
Number of pages14
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Water Science and Technology

User-Defined Keywords

  • climate change
  • floods
  • human-induced impacts
  • Pearl River Basin
  • streamflow
  • time-varying

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