TY - JOUR
T1 - Projection of drought-flood abrupt alternation in a humid subtropical region under changing climate
AU - Wang, Rong
AU - Li, Xianghu
AU - Zhang, Qi
AU - Cheng, Junxiang
AU - Li, Jianfeng
AU - Zhang, Dan
AU - Liu, Yuanbo
N1 - This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFC3204102 ) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41871093 and 42071028 ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2023/9
Y1 - 2023/9
N2 - Drought-flood abrupt alternation events (DFAAEs) bring about detrimental impacts on economics and environment. Projection of the future change in the DFAAEs is a challenging issue. Incorporated with the datasets of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the drought-flood abrupt alternation index (DFAAI) to detect climate change impacts on the DFAAEs in the Poyang Lake Basin for the period from 2020 to 2099. Our results demonstrated that the projected DFAAEs would become more frequent and be mainly distributed from January to October. Among them, the drought-to-flood events mainly occur from January to July, while the flood-to-drought events mainly occur from July to October. The occurrence of the DFAAEs is more frequent, and the occurrence frequency of DFAAEs under RCP4.5 is 75. The mild DFAAEs would be the dominated events in the Poyang Lake Basin, while the moderate and extreme DFAAEs are spatially unevenly distributed. The annual maximum and minimum of DFAAI would increase, and the frequency and intensity of the DFAAEs tend to increase. The projected runoff tends to increase but spatially homogenous. The projected peak flow would delay leading to a change in the transition time of the DFAAEs' type. This study provides a future projection on DFAAEs, valuable for policy makers to mitigate flood disasters at a basin scale.
AB - Drought-flood abrupt alternation events (DFAAEs) bring about detrimental impacts on economics and environment. Projection of the future change in the DFAAEs is a challenging issue. Incorporated with the datasets of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the drought-flood abrupt alternation index (DFAAI) to detect climate change impacts on the DFAAEs in the Poyang Lake Basin for the period from 2020 to 2099. Our results demonstrated that the projected DFAAEs would become more frequent and be mainly distributed from January to October. Among them, the drought-to-flood events mainly occur from January to July, while the flood-to-drought events mainly occur from July to October. The occurrence of the DFAAEs is more frequent, and the occurrence frequency of DFAAEs under RCP4.5 is 75. The mild DFAAEs would be the dominated events in the Poyang Lake Basin, while the moderate and extreme DFAAEs are spatially unevenly distributed. The annual maximum and minimum of DFAAI would increase, and the frequency and intensity of the DFAAEs tend to increase. The projected runoff tends to increase but spatially homogenous. The projected peak flow would delay leading to a change in the transition time of the DFAAEs' type. This study provides a future projection on DFAAEs, valuable for policy makers to mitigate flood disasters at a basin scale.
KW - Drought-flood abrupt alternation event
KW - Future variations
KW - General circulation models
KW - Humid subtropical region
KW - Hydrological model
KW - Poyang Lake Basin
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85163885819&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129875
DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129875
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85163885819
SN - 0022-1694
VL - 624
JO - Journal of Hydrology
JF - Journal of Hydrology
M1 - 129875
ER -
