One Wales? The Geography of Participation and Voting in the 2011 Welsh Referendum

This article examines the geography of participation and voting behaviour in the 2011 Welsh devolution referendum. We show that turnout levels, while relatively low everywhere, varied significantly across Wales. Such variation was mainly in line with standard socio-economic predictors of voting turnout; however, turn- out was also correlated with factors, such as the strength of the Welsh language in a locale, associated with variance in participation in specifically Welsh polls. We also find that, notwithstanding the clear Yes victory in 2011, voting patterns in this referendum were very highly correlated with those in 1997. However, the modest differences between the two votes were all in the direction of greater geographical homogeneity. The 2011 referendum result indicates that Wales has become somewhat more united on devolution, but significant differences persist.