Observed sensitivities of PM_2.5 and O₃ extremes to meteorological conditions in China and implications for the future

Frequent extreme air pollution episodes in China accompanied with high concentrations of particulate matters (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) are partly supported by meteorological conditions. However, the relationships between meteorological variables and pollution extremes can be poorly estimated solely based on mean pollutant level. In this study, we use quantile regression to investigate meteorological sensitivities of PM_2.5 and O₃ extremes, benefiting from nationwide observations of air pollutants over 2013–2019 in China. Results show that surface winds and humidity are identified as key drivers for high PM_2.5 events during both summer and winter, with greater sensitivities at higher percentiles. Higher humidity favors the hydroscopic growth of particles during winter, but it tends to decrease PM_2.5 through wet scavenging during summer. Surface temperature play dominant role in summer O₃ extremes, especially in VOC-limited regime, followed by surface winds and radiation. Sensitivities of O₃ to meteorological conditions are relatively unchanging across percentiles. Under the fossil-fueled development pathway (SSP5–8.5) scenario, meteorological conditions are projected to favor winter PM_2.5 extremes in North China Plain (NCP), Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Sichuan Basin (SCB), mainly due to enhanced surface specific humidity. Summer O₃ extremes are likely to occur more frequently in the NCP and YRD, associated with warmer temperature and stronger solar radiation. Besides, meteorological conditions over a relatively longer period play a more important role in the formation of pollution extremes. These results improve our understanding of the relationships between extreme PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution and meteorology, and can be used as a valuable reference of model predicted air pollution extremes.