Modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in China

Hing Lin CHAN*, Shu Kam Lee

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

    38 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In contrast with developed countries, coal is the major energy source of China. In view of its importance, this paper attempts to analyse and forecast the country's demand for coal as it moves towards the next century. To do this, we have applied three different methods to contrast their performances in fitting the Chinese data: Engle-Granger's error correction model, Hendry's error correction model and Hendry's general-to-specific approach. It is found that the Engle-Granger approach outperforms the other two in terms of having the smallest ex post forecast errors. Using the Engle-Granger approach, the model predicts that the Chinese economy will experience a 5% shortage in the year 2000.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)271-287
    Number of pages17
    JournalEnergy Economics
    Volume19
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 1997

    Scopus Subject Areas

    • Economics and Econometrics
    • Energy(all)

    User-Defined Keywords

    • China
    • Coal
    • Demand

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