TY - JOUR
T1 - Mathematical Modeling of the Evolution of Absenteeism in a University Hospital over 12 Years
AU - Vialatte, Luc
AU - Pereira, Bruno
AU - Guillin, Arnaud
AU - Miallaret, Sophie
AU - Baker, Julien Steven
AU - Colin-Chevalier, Rémi
AU - Yao-Lafourcade, Anne Françoise
AU - Azzaoui, Nourddine
AU - Clinchamps, Maëlys
AU - Bouillon-Minois, Jean Baptiste
AU - Dutheil, Frédéric
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2022/7/6
Y1 - 2022/7/6
N2 - Increased absenteeism in health care institutions is a major problem, both economically and health related. Our objectives were to understand the general evolution of absenteeism in a university hospital from 2007 to 2019 and to analyze the professional and sociodemographic factors influencing this issue. An initial exploratory analysis was performed to understand the factors that most influence absences. The data were then transformed into time series to analyze the evolution of absences over time. We performed a temporal principal components analysis (PCA) of the absence proportions to group the factors. We then created profiles with contributions from each variable. We could then observe the curves of these profiles globally but also compare the profiles by period. Finally, a predictive analysis was performed on the data using a VAR model. Over the 13 years of follow-up, there were 1,729,097 absences for 14,443 different workers (73.8% women; 74.6% caregivers). Overall, the number of absences increased logarithmically. The variables contributing most to the typical profile of the highest proportions of absences were having a youngest child between 4 and 10 years old (6.44% of contribution), being aged between 40 and 50 years old (5.47%), being aged between 30 and 40 years old (5.32%), working in the administrative field (4.88%), being tenured (4.87%), being a parent (4.85%), being in a coupled relationship (4.69%), having a child over the age of 11 (4.36%), and being separated (4.29%). The forecasts predict a stagnation in the proportion of absences for the profiles of the most absent factors over the next 5 years including annual peaks. During this study, we looked at the sociodemographic and occupational factors that led to high levels of absenteeism. Being aware of these factors allows health companies to act to reduce absenteeism, which represents real financial and public health threats for hospitals.
AB - Increased absenteeism in health care institutions is a major problem, both economically and health related. Our objectives were to understand the general evolution of absenteeism in a university hospital from 2007 to 2019 and to analyze the professional and sociodemographic factors influencing this issue. An initial exploratory analysis was performed to understand the factors that most influence absences. The data were then transformed into time series to analyze the evolution of absences over time. We performed a temporal principal components analysis (PCA) of the absence proportions to group the factors. We then created profiles with contributions from each variable. We could then observe the curves of these profiles globally but also compare the profiles by period. Finally, a predictive analysis was performed on the data using a VAR model. Over the 13 years of follow-up, there were 1,729,097 absences for 14,443 different workers (73.8% women; 74.6% caregivers). Overall, the number of absences increased logarithmically. The variables contributing most to the typical profile of the highest proportions of absences were having a youngest child between 4 and 10 years old (6.44% of contribution), being aged between 40 and 50 years old (5.47%), being aged between 30 and 40 years old (5.32%), working in the administrative field (4.88%), being tenured (4.87%), being a parent (4.85%), being in a coupled relationship (4.69%), having a child over the age of 11 (4.36%), and being separated (4.29%). The forecasts predict a stagnation in the proportion of absences for the profiles of the most absent factors over the next 5 years including annual peaks. During this study, we looked at the sociodemographic and occupational factors that led to high levels of absenteeism. Being aware of these factors allows health companies to act to reduce absenteeism, which represents real financial and public health threats for hospitals.
KW - absenteeism
KW - hospital
KW - occupational factors
KW - sociodemographic factors
KW - statistical model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85133433387&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/ijerph19148236
DO - 10.3390/ijerph19148236
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 35886088
AN - SCOPUS:85133433387
SN - 1661-7827
VL - 19
JO - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
JF - International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
IS - 14
M1 - 8236
ER -