Mathematical Modeling of the Evolution of Absenteeism in a University Hospital over 12 Years

Luc Vialatte, Bruno Pereira, Arnaud Guillin, Sophie Miallaret, Julien Steven Baker, Rémi Colin-Chevalier, Anne Françoise Yao-Lafourcade, Nourddine Azzaoui, Maëlys Clinchamps, Jean Baptiste Bouillon-Minois, Frédéric Dutheil*

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Increased absenteeism in health care institutions is a major problem, both economically and health related. Our objectives were to understand the general evolution of absenteeism in a university hospital from 2007 to 2019 and to analyze the professional and sociodemographic factors influencing this issue. An initial exploratory analysis was performed to understand the factors that most influence absences. The data were then transformed into time series to analyze the evolution of absences over time. We performed a temporal principal components analysis (PCA) of the absence proportions to group the factors. We then created profiles with contributions from each variable. We could then observe the curves of these profiles globally but also compare the profiles by period. Finally, a predictive analysis was performed on the data using a VAR model. Over the 13 years of follow-up, there were 1,729,097 absences for 14,443 different workers (73.8% women; 74.6% caregivers). Overall, the number of absences increased logarithmically. The variables contributing most to the typical profile of the highest proportions of absences were having a youngest child between 4 and 10 years old (6.44% of contribution), being aged between 40 and 50 years old (5.47%), being aged between 30 and 40 years old (5.32%), working in the administrative field (4.88%), being tenured (4.87%), being a parent (4.85%), being in a coupled relationship (4.69%), having a child over the age of 11 (4.36%), and being separated (4.29%). The forecasts predict a stagnation in the proportion of absences for the profiles of the most absent factors over the next 5 years including annual peaks. During this study, we looked at the sociodemographic and occupational factors that led to high levels of absenteeism. Being aware of these factors allows health companies to act to reduce absenteeism, which represents real financial and public health threats for hospitals.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number8236
    Number of pages16
    JournalInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
    Volume19
    Issue number14
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 6 Jul 2022

    Scopus Subject Areas

    • Pollution
    • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
    • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

    User-Defined Keywords

    • absenteeism
    • hospital
    • occupational factors
    • sociodemographic factors
    • statistical model

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