Market efficiency, cross hedging and price forecasts: California's natural-gas markets

Chi-Keung WOO*, A. Olson, I. Horowitz

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

    22 Citations (Scopus)


    An extensive North American pipeline grid that physically integrates individual natural-gas markets, in conjunction with economic ties binding the California markets to those at Henry Hub, Louisiana and the New York mercantile exchange via an array of financial instruments, suggests that the spot prices at Henry Hub will impact those in California. We verify the suggestion via a partial-adjustment regression model, thus affirming that California traders can exploit the cross-hedging opportunities made available to them via market integration with Henry Hub, and that they can accurately forecast the price they will have to pay to meet future demand based solely on the price of futures at Henry Hub and the price of a California natural-gas basis swaps contract.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1290-1304
    Number of pages15
    Issue number8-9
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 2006

    Scopus Subject Areas

    • Civil and Structural Engineering
    • Building and Construction
    • Pollution
    • Mechanical Engineering
    • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
    • Electrical and Electronic Engineering


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