TY - JOUR
T1 - Malaria transmission risk is projected to increase in the highlands of Western and Northern Rwanda
AU - Zong, Lian
AU - Ngarukiyimana, Jean Paul
AU - Yang, Yuanjian
AU - Yim, Steve H. L.
AU - Zhou, Yi
AU - Wang, Mengya
AU - Xie, Zunyi
AU - Ho, Hung Chak
AU - Gao, Meng
AU - Tong, Shilu
AU - Lolli, Simone
N1 - This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42222503) and the Ministry of Education, Singapore, under its MOE AcRF Tier 3 Award MOET32022-0006.
Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/10/3
Y1 - 2024/10/3
N2 - Malaria is one of the major health threats in Africa, and the risk of transmission is projected to be exacerbated by global warming. Rwanda experienced an 11-fold increase in malaria incidence from 2011 to 2015 despite extensive funding and implementation of control measures. Here, we focus on Rwanda as a case study and simulate monthly malaria incidence between 2010 and 2015, employing an ensemble learning method. Next, we project future malaria prevalence using shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We find that the projected increases in temperature and precipitation may shift malaria transmission risk to the highlands of western and northern Rwanda. These two regions that currently experience low malaria transmission. The seasonal effects of malaria incidence may be less apparent from January to June, and the peak season for malaria transmission in the highlands could occur one month earlier. Our findings highlight the impacts of climate change on malaria epidemics in Rwanda, which have implications for other world regions.
AB - Malaria is one of the major health threats in Africa, and the risk of transmission is projected to be exacerbated by global warming. Rwanda experienced an 11-fold increase in malaria incidence from 2011 to 2015 despite extensive funding and implementation of control measures. Here, we focus on Rwanda as a case study and simulate monthly malaria incidence between 2010 and 2015, employing an ensemble learning method. Next, we project future malaria prevalence using shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We find that the projected increases in temperature and precipitation may shift malaria transmission risk to the highlands of western and northern Rwanda. These two regions that currently experience low malaria transmission. The seasonal effects of malaria incidence may be less apparent from January to June, and the peak season for malaria transmission in the highlands could occur one month earlier. Our findings highlight the impacts of climate change on malaria epidemics in Rwanda, which have implications for other world regions.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85205855439&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s43247-024-01717-9
DO - 10.1038/s43247-024-01717-9
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85205855439
SN - 2662-4435
VL - 5
JO - Communications Earth and Environment
JF - Communications Earth and Environment
M1 - 559
ER -
