Long-term outlook for global rare earth production

Rare earths are increasingly important in modern industry. It is thus critical for both users and policy makers to understand the future production of rare earth resources. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the long-term production of world rare earths using a flexible bell-shaped curve-fitting model. The results show that world rare earth production may increase for many decades. However, the production rate, which is key to understanding the balance between the supply and demand of rare earths, may differ sharply with variation in the value of ultimately recoverable reserves and the model's curve shape. Our highest projected for peak production and peak year are 1.28 Mt (rare earth oxide equivalent) and 2115 respectively, and our lowest projections suggest that production will peak at 0.4 Mt in 2118. Given the many potential constraints on production, this paper suggests that our lowest projection may best represent the actual production pathway. Finally, the paper suggests measures to deal with a potential imbalance between supply and demand from both the supply and the demand side.