Large-scale climate patterns offer preseasonal hints on the co-occurrence of heat wave and O₃ pollution in China

Heat waves and air pollution extremes exert compounding effects on human health and food security and may worsen under future climate change. On the basis of reconstructed daily O₃ levels in China and meteorological reanalysis, we found that the interannual variability of the frequency of summertime co-occurrence of heat wave and O₃ pollution in China is regulated mainly by a combination of springtime warming in the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean, and Ross Sea. These sea surface temperature anomalies impose influences on precipitation, radiation, etc., to modulate the co-occurrence, which were also confirmed with coupled chemistry–climate numerical experiments. We thus built a multivariable regression model to predict co-occurrence a season in advance, and correlation coefficient could reach 0.81 (P < 0.01) for the North China Plain. Our results provide useful information for the government to take actions in advance to mitigate damage from these synergistic costressors.