International Order and European Enlargement since 1989: Is the Journey the Destination?

Long celebrated as the European Union’s (EU) most successful foreign policy tool, enlargement’s transformative power was put to the test in the 1990s and 2000s, a period in which the Union more than doubled in size. Enlargement then disappeared from the EU’s agenda until February 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised the possibility of another round of expansion, driven by geopolitical urgency and moral obligation. This article argues that such an expansion is unlikely to take place, owing to divisions within the EU, the difficulties faced by all current candidates, and to the unfavourable international context. The EU, coming up against very real limits to its actorness, avoids decisive political action on enlargement by retreating into proceduralism. Thus, Ukraine, alongside the other Eastern candidates, appears likely to follow the path of the Western Balkans – engaging in an ever more attenuated accession process, while full EU membership remains distant.