TY - JOUR
T1 - Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk
AU - Gu, Xihui
AU - Zhang, Qiang
AU - LI, Jianfeng
AU - Chen, Deliang
AU - Singh, Vijay P.
AU - Zhang, Yongqiang
AU - Liu, Jianyu
AU - Shen, Zexi
AU - Yu, Huiqian
N1 - Funding Information:
This research has received funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41771536 , U1911205 , 41901041 , 41621061 , and 51425903 ) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2019YFA0606900 and 2018YFA0605603 ) and the Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University ( 12800-312230012 ). J. Li is supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, China (Grant No. HKBU12303517 ). We thank the ISIMIP and SSP coordination teams for their efforts in producing, coordinating, and making the model outputs publicly available. Our cordial gratitude should be extended to the editor, Prof. Dr. Emmanouil Anagnostou, and anonymous reviewers for their professional and pertinent comments and suggestions which are greatly helpful for further quality improvement of our manuscript.
Funding Information:
This research has received funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41771536, U1911205, 41901041, 41621061, and 51425903) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2019YFA0606900 and 2018YFA0605603) and the Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University (12800-312230012). J. Li is supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, China (Grant No. HKBU12303517). We thank the ISIMIP and SSP coordination teams for their efforts in producing, coordinating, and making the model outputs publicly available. Our cordial gratitude should be extended to the editor, Prof. Dr. Emmanouil Anagnostou, and anonymous reviewers for their professional and pertinent comments and suggestions which are greatly helpful for further quality improvement of our manuscript. ISIMIP simulations are obtained from https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/projects/isimip/. Population in the year 2000 is the Gridded Population of the World (GPW) version 3 and the future gridded population during 2010-2100 period is projected by the five SSPs. The GDP in the year 2000 is from the Global Gridded Geographically Based Economic Data (G-Econ) version 4 and the future gridded GDP in the year 2025 is projected by SRES B2 regional economic growth rates. All population and GDP datasets are from Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) at https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu. In-situ observed discharge data are obtained from Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) at https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/Home/homepage_node.html.
PY - 2020/11
Y1 - 2020/11
N2 - Employing a multi-model framework, we estimate the impacts of contrasting warming levels and uneven regional socio-economic development on area, population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures to flood magnitude and variability in global Flood-Affected Regions (FARs). These exposures to flood variability show persistent increases in FARs, but to flood magnitude only in East and South Asia. Globally, the increases in these exposures are not projected in moderate but extreme floods. Specifically, the areal exposure would be decreased (increased) by 1.8%/°C (1.9%/°C) for moderate (extreme) floods; the reduced population exposure to extreme floods can be three times higher than that to moderate floods when limiting 2 °C to 1.5 °C warming. Rapid regional economic growth of East and South Asia (whose GDP accounts for 9.8% of FARs in year 2000 to 18.5% in year 2025) would shift global GDP exposure from a decrease of 2.5%/°C to an increase of 1.7%/°C.
AB - Employing a multi-model framework, we estimate the impacts of contrasting warming levels and uneven regional socio-economic development on area, population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures to flood magnitude and variability in global Flood-Affected Regions (FARs). These exposures to flood variability show persistent increases in FARs, but to flood magnitude only in East and South Asia. Globally, the increases in these exposures are not projected in moderate but extreme floods. Specifically, the areal exposure would be decreased (increased) by 1.8%/°C (1.9%/°C) for moderate (extreme) floods; the reduced population exposure to extreme floods can be three times higher than that to moderate floods when limiting 2 °C to 1.5 °C warming. Rapid regional economic growth of East and South Asia (whose GDP accounts for 9.8% of FARs in year 2000 to 18.5% in year 2025) would shift global GDP exposure from a decrease of 2.5%/°C to an increase of 1.7%/°C.
KW - Flood exposures
KW - Global warming
KW - Multi-model framework
KW - Socio-economic development
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85087478049&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125262
DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125262
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85087478049
SN - 0022-1694
VL - 590
JO - Journal of Hydrology
JF - Journal of Hydrology
M1 - 125262
ER -
