TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of urbanization on nonstationarity of annual and seasonal precipitation extremes in China
AU - Gu, X.
AU - Zhang, Q.
AU - Li, Jianfeng
AU - Singh, Vijay P.
AU - Sun, Peng
N1 - Funding Information:
This work is financially supported by the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No. 51425903 ), the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0605603 ), the Strategic Priority Research Program Grant of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19070402 ), the Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41621061 ), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) (Grant No. CUGCJ1702 and CUG180614 ). Our cordial gratitude should be extended to the editor, Prof. Dr. Emmanouil Anagnostou, and anonymous reviewers for their professional and pertinent comments which are greatly helpful for further quality improvement of this manuscript.
Funding Information:
This work is financially supported by the National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (Grant No. 51425903), the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0605603), the Strategic Priority Research Program Grant of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19070402), the Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41621061), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) (Grant No. CUGCJ1702 and CUG180614). Our cordial gratitude should be extended to the editor, Prof. Dr. Emmanouil Anagnostou, and anonymous reviewers for their professional and pertinent comments which are greatly helpful for further quality improvement of this manuscript.
PY - 2019/8
Y1 - 2019/8
N2 - Chinese cities have been experiencing unprecedented growth for over three decades and the resulting urbanization is having a remarkable impact on the hydrological cycle at the local and regional scale. This study therefore examined the influence of urbanization on nonstationarity of annual and seasonal precipitation extremes in China, using daily precipitation data from 1857 stations for 1961–2014, and NCAR/NCEP and ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets. Results of trend, change point, and bootstrap analyses revealed that urban signatures on long-term changes (i.e. trends and magnitudes) of precipitation extremes were not prominently visible at the national scale. However, a nonstationary frequency analysis of precipitation extremes by a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework with a cluster of 66 models showed that urbanization caused nonstationarity in precipitation extremes at local and regional scales, such as North China. Further, significant nonstationarity tended to occur more in urbanizing areas than in rural and urbanized areas, suggesting that land use/land cover (LULC) transition (i.e. rural areas turning into urban areas) played an important role in introducing nonstationarity. Furthermore, analysis of large-scale circulation patterns, using k-mean clustering, showed that urban signatures on extremes were not prominent at the national scale but at the regional scale. Further studies are needed to enumerate physical mechanisms causing the impact of local environmental changes on precipitation extremes at different geographical locations over China.
AB - Chinese cities have been experiencing unprecedented growth for over three decades and the resulting urbanization is having a remarkable impact on the hydrological cycle at the local and regional scale. This study therefore examined the influence of urbanization on nonstationarity of annual and seasonal precipitation extremes in China, using daily precipitation data from 1857 stations for 1961–2014, and NCAR/NCEP and ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets. Results of trend, change point, and bootstrap analyses revealed that urban signatures on long-term changes (i.e. trends and magnitudes) of precipitation extremes were not prominently visible at the national scale. However, a nonstationary frequency analysis of precipitation extremes by a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework with a cluster of 66 models showed that urbanization caused nonstationarity in precipitation extremes at local and regional scales, such as North China. Further, significant nonstationarity tended to occur more in urbanizing areas than in rural and urbanized areas, suggesting that land use/land cover (LULC) transition (i.e. rural areas turning into urban areas) played an important role in introducing nonstationarity. Furthermore, analysis of large-scale circulation patterns, using k-mean clustering, showed that urban signatures on extremes were not prominent at the national scale but at the regional scale. Further studies are needed to enumerate physical mechanisms causing the impact of local environmental changes on precipitation extremes at different geographical locations over China.
KW - China
KW - GAMLSS
KW - Long-term changes
KW - Nonstationarity
KW - Precipitation extremes
KW - Urbanization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85069897533&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.070
DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.070
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85069897533
SN - 0022-1694
VL - 575
SP - 638
EP - 655
JO - Journal of Hydrology
JF - Journal of Hydrology
ER -