"I Want the Prettiest" vs. "I Don't Want the Ugliest": Unpacking Consumers' Cognitive Paths in Blind Box Purchase Decision-Making

This study investigates how adding a saliently unattractive item to a blind-box series shapes consumers' purchasing decisions. Drawing on the reference-dependent framework of prospect theory and contextual evaluation theories, this research argues that an "ugly" outlier shifts consumers' operative reference point from securing a favorite to avoiding the worst when buying blind boxes. This reframing turns the purchase lottery into a high chance of an acceptable outcome. Three incentive-compatible behavioral experiments with Pop Mart collectibles and a purposive sample (n=80) of experienced or highly engaged consumers test this claim. Experiment 1 (single series) shows a higher purchase likelihood when an ugly item is present versus. absent. Experiment 2 (two series plus no-buy) increases overall purchase incidence and shifts demand toward the "clean" series. Experiment 3 (forced choice between series) reveals a preference for the clean series. The theoretical and managerial implications of this study are discussed.