TY - JOUR
T1 - Future changes in the meteorological potential for winter haze over Beijing during periods of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality in China projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models
AU - Wang, Jing
AU - Liu, Yanju
AU - Ding, Yihui
AU - Yang, Yang
AU - Xu, Ying
AU - Li, Qiaoping
AU - Zhang, Yingxian
AU - Gao, Meng
AU - Yang, Jianbo
AU - Wu, Qingyuan
AU - Li, Chunhui
AU - Li, Mingcai
N1 - Funding Information:
Atmospheric Pollution Control of the Prime Minister Fund, Grant/Award Number: DQGG0104; Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation, Grant/Award Number: 2019A1515011808; National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Numbers: 41790471, 41975159; Research Project of Coordinated Prevention and Control of O3 and PM2.5 Compound Pollution, Grant/Award Number: DQGG202003 Funding information
Funding Information:
The authors are grateful for the insightful comments of the anonymous reviewers. This work was supported by the Research Project of Coordinated Prevention and Control of O and PM Compound Pollution (grant no. DQGG202003), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants no. 41975159 and 41790471), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (grant no. 2019A1515011808), and the Atmospheric Pollution Control of the Prime Minister Fund (grant no. DQGG0104). 3 2.5
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Royal Meteorological Society.
PY - 2022/3/30
Y1 - 2022/3/30
N2 - Hazy conditions have a significant impact on the environment and societal development. Their occurrence and persistence depend largely on climatological conditions, including the important role of climate change. Based on monthly data from 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under three Tier 1 scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5), the meteorological potential for winter haze pollution over Beijing was assessed during periods of peak carbon emissions (PCP; 2021–2030) and carbon neutrality (approximate net-zero emissions) (PCN; 2051–2060) in China. The results show that a possible high-emission strategy during PCP may not obviously enhance winter hazy conditions over Beijing in the near future. Rather, the high-emission scenario in this period may decrease the meteorological potential that is favourable for the enhanced Beijing haze pollution by inducing a Northeast Asia cyclonic anomaly, compared to situations under SSP2–4.5, with medium emissions. Further analyses indicated that, under the continued sustainable pathway (SSP1–2.6 in PCN plus SSP1–2.6 in PCP; the better pathway simulating the effects of approximate net-zero emissions during PCN through model results), atmospheric conditions such as the East Asian winter monsoon as well as decadal oceanic forcings of the mega-El Niño and the warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which are conducive to more frequent Beijing haze, are significantly suppressed in the farther future PCN. Under such circumstances, in situ haze pollution is highly repressed, suggesting a critical and positive role for the low-carbon policy advocated by China during PCN in suppressing longer-term hazy conditions over Beijing. In contrast, Beijing haze pollution during PCN is frequent under the discontinued sustainable pathway (SSP2–4.5/SSP5–8.5 in PCN plus SSP1–2.6 in PCP). Our findings demonstrate the possible insignificant impact of the high-emission strategy of China during the near-future PCP on Beijing haze exacerbation, and an important role for carbon neutrality advocated by China to suppress the haze potential in the farther future PCN, highlighting the significance of future pathway selections.
AB - Hazy conditions have a significant impact on the environment and societal development. Their occurrence and persistence depend largely on climatological conditions, including the important role of climate change. Based on monthly data from 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under three Tier 1 scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5), the meteorological potential for winter haze pollution over Beijing was assessed during periods of peak carbon emissions (PCP; 2021–2030) and carbon neutrality (approximate net-zero emissions) (PCN; 2051–2060) in China. The results show that a possible high-emission strategy during PCP may not obviously enhance winter hazy conditions over Beijing in the near future. Rather, the high-emission scenario in this period may decrease the meteorological potential that is favourable for the enhanced Beijing haze pollution by inducing a Northeast Asia cyclonic anomaly, compared to situations under SSP2–4.5, with medium emissions. Further analyses indicated that, under the continued sustainable pathway (SSP1–2.6 in PCN plus SSP1–2.6 in PCP; the better pathway simulating the effects of approximate net-zero emissions during PCN through model results), atmospheric conditions such as the East Asian winter monsoon as well as decadal oceanic forcings of the mega-El Niño and the warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which are conducive to more frequent Beijing haze, are significantly suppressed in the farther future PCN. Under such circumstances, in situ haze pollution is highly repressed, suggesting a critical and positive role for the low-carbon policy advocated by China during PCN in suppressing longer-term hazy conditions over Beijing. In contrast, Beijing haze pollution during PCN is frequent under the discontinued sustainable pathway (SSP2–4.5/SSP5–8.5 in PCN plus SSP1–2.6 in PCP). Our findings demonstrate the possible insignificant impact of the high-emission strategy of China during the near-future PCP on Beijing haze exacerbation, and an important role for carbon neutrality advocated by China to suppress the haze potential in the farther future PCN, highlighting the significance of future pathway selections.
KW - Beijing
KW - carbon neutrality
KW - climate change
KW - CMIP6
KW - peak carbon emissions
KW - winter haze
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85113383616&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/joc.7352
DO - 10.1002/joc.7352
M3 - Journal article
SN - 0899-8418
VL - 42
SP - 2065
EP - 2082
JO - International Journal of Climatology
JF - International Journal of Climatology
IS - 4
ER -