From trade-offs and synergies to equity and spatiotemporal mismatches: Integrating supply–demand dynamics for ecosystem service management

Population growth and environmental changes have exacerbated the supply–demand mismatch in ecosystem services. Sustainable management of ecosystem services is key to strengthening regional ecological resilience and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. However, the supply–demand relationship of ecosystem services still requires systematic and comprehensive indices for assessment to support their improvement and coordinated development. Here, this study adapted two economic equity indices for ecosystem services and proposed an integrated surplus–deficit index to analyze the supply–demand dynamics in the Yellow River Basin, an essential ecological and socioeconomic zone in China. The study revealed that the supply of food production and soil conservation, as well as the demand for food production, water yield, and carbon sequestration, all showed continuous increases from 2000 to 2020. The direction of trade-offs or synergies between supply and demand remained stable, but their intensity varied over time, with more pronounced changes occurring between 2010 and 2020 than in the previous period. Fewer cities experienced food production deficits, but intra-provincial inequalities in supply–demand allocation increased. Water yield, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and habitat quality were dominated by surpluses; however, their supply–demand allocation exhibited significant inequalities. Moreover, land use emerged as the dominant factor influencing carbon sequestration (primarily associated with forest coverage) and habitat quality (largely linked to bare land proportion). This study suggests that optimizing the spatial allocation of resources by balancing supply and demand could enhance ecosystem service management, with implications for reconciling ecological protection with economic growth and promoting sustainability.