Forecasting the demand for energy in China

Hing Lin Chan*, Shu Kam Lee

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

    38 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In this paper we use a cointegration and vector error-correction model to analyze the energy consumption behavior of China. In formulating a model suitable to China, it is found that not only conventional variables such as energy price and income are important, but the share of heavy industry output in the national income is also a significant factor. With the help of a vector error-correction model, we predict that China will need approximately 1.42 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by the end of this century, representing a 44 percent increase compared with 1990.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)19-30
    Number of pages12
    JournalEnergy Journal
    Volume17
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 1996

    Scopus Subject Areas

    • Economics and Econometrics
    • Energy(all)

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