Forecasting the demand for energy in China

Hing Lin CHAN*, Shu Kam Lee

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

31 Citations (Scopus)


In this paper we use a cointegration and vector error-correction model to analyze the energy consumption behavior of China. In formulating a model suitable to China, it is found that not only conventional variables such as energy price and income are important, but the share of heavy industry output in the national income is also a significant factor. With the help of a vector error-correction model, we predict that China will need approximately 1.42 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by the end of this century, representing a 44 percent increase compared with 1990.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)19-30
Number of pages12
JournalEnergy Journal
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1996

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Energy(all)


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