TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluation of transitional behavior of wetness/drought regimes in the Poyang Lake Basin, China
AU - Zhang, Qiang
AU - Sun, Peng
AU - Singh, Vijay P.
AU - LI, Jianfeng
AU - Tu, Xinjun
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was financially supported by the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Jiangxi Normal University), Ministry of Education (Grant No. ZK2013006), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41071020), Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University and by fully supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK441313).
Funding Information:
Acknowledgments This work was financially supported by the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research (Jiangxi Normal University), Ministry of Education (Grant No. ZK2013006), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41071020), Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University and by fully supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK441313).
PY - 2016/11/1
Y1 - 2016/11/1
N2 - Transitional behavior of wetness/dryness regimes is investigated using the standardized precipitation/runoff indices (SPI-SRI) and the Markov chain model, and wetness/drought conditions are predicted. Results indicate that (1) the wetness/drought hazards have large negative impacts during initial conditions in the Xiuhe River Basin and manifest their negative impacts during the development condition of the wetness/droughts in the Fuhe and Xiuhe River Basins; in the Ganjiang and Raohe River Basins, however, droughts have their greatest impacts during the lasting time intervals, (2) the occurrence of meteorological or hydrological droughts/floods individually is subject to very low probability, implying close relations between meteorological and hydrological conditions within the Poyang Lake Basin, and (3) an abrupt shift between hydrometeorological wetness and dryness events is identified, specifically in northwest and northeast parts of the Poyang Lake Basin, which could be due to intensifying precipitation regimes in these regions under the influence of increasing temperature. The prediction of droughts indicates that the transitional probability from the second condition to the hydrological drought is the lowest and the transitional probability from the first (or third) condition to the fourth condition is the largest. Results of this study will be of value for developing measures for mitigation of droughts in a changing environment.
AB - Transitional behavior of wetness/dryness regimes is investigated using the standardized precipitation/runoff indices (SPI-SRI) and the Markov chain model, and wetness/drought conditions are predicted. Results indicate that (1) the wetness/drought hazards have large negative impacts during initial conditions in the Xiuhe River Basin and manifest their negative impacts during the development condition of the wetness/droughts in the Fuhe and Xiuhe River Basins; in the Ganjiang and Raohe River Basins, however, droughts have their greatest impacts during the lasting time intervals, (2) the occurrence of meteorological or hydrological droughts/floods individually is subject to very low probability, implying close relations between meteorological and hydrological conditions within the Poyang Lake Basin, and (3) an abrupt shift between hydrometeorological wetness and dryness events is identified, specifically in northwest and northeast parts of the Poyang Lake Basin, which could be due to intensifying precipitation regimes in these regions under the influence of increasing temperature. The prediction of droughts indicates that the transitional probability from the second condition to the hydrological drought is the lowest and the transitional probability from the first (or third) condition to the fourth condition is the largest. Results of this study will be of value for developing measures for mitigation of droughts in a changing environment.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84939226764&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s00704-015-1593-9
DO - 10.1007/s00704-015-1593-9
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:84939226764
SN - 0177-798X
VL - 126
SP - 631
EP - 642
JO - Theoretical and Applied Climatology
JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology
IS - 3-4
ER -
