European Energy Security through Foreign Policy Analysis: Nord Stream 1 and its Consequences

This paper reexamines the Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) with regard to recent developments concerning Nord Stream 1 (NS1) and Nord Stream 2 (NS2). Both of these projects are understood as specific foreign policy actions - “products” of foreign policy decisions. Drawing on Walter Carlsnaes’s identified lack of integrative and dynamic models that would convincingly include both types of variables - structures and actors in a dynamic fashion - this study proposes a “reinforced model” of foreign policy analysis. Our model accounts convincingly for the correlation between NS1 and NS2, understood as foreign policy actions. Our research indicates that the linear sequence, as proposed by Carlsnaes himself (structure - disposition - intention - action), can and indeed should be re-conceptualized in a “circular” manner. This being the case, it is claimed that the outcome of the original action (NS1) has reinforced the structural dimension that has led to reinforced dispositional dimension, which in turn has led to reinforced intentional dimension that ultimately underpins NS2.