Depression diagnostics using a nonlinear mathematical oscillatory model

Background and Objectives: It is known that long-term stress leads to trauma and very often to depression. Usually, the diagnosis of depression is dealt with by psychiatrists who, based on conversations and questions, diagnose the patient's illness and condition. Unfortunately, this diagnosis is not always reliable. To prevent the development of disease, it is necessary to detect illness in a timely manner. One of the indications of the possibility of the onset of disease is a disturbance in the level of hormones in the body, especially cortisol. The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model for cortisol variation resulting from stress which would be useful in making conclusions about depressive states.

Methods: Rapid changes in cortisol concentration, according to ultradian rhythms, which are much faster than the daily circadian rhythm, is modelled as a truly nonlinear oscillator. The mathematical model contains two coupled first order differential equations. The stress is modeled as a pulsating action, described with a periodic trigonometric function, and cortisol production as a cubic nonlinear one. Three models for cortisol variation are considered: 1) the pure nonlinear model, 2) the periodically excited system, 3) and the chaotic system. The results from the study are supported with experimental measurements.

Results: Without stress, cortisol variation is of an oscillatory type with a constant steady-state amplitude. Intensive stress causes a resonant phenomenon in cortisol oscillatory variation. The occasion is short and is usually without consequences. For long stress periods deterministic chaos occurs which permanently changes the levels of cortisol. This phenomenon is an indicator of depression. Results from the suggested models are compared with experimentally obtained ones and good quantitative agreement is obtained. 

Conclusions: The nonlinear oscillator is a good model for indication of depression. The model provides not only general conclusions, but also individual ones, if personal characteristics are taken into consideration. Response of the model depends not only on the input data related to stress, but also on the system parameters that specify each individual. Findings obtained from this study have implications for the medical diagnosis and treatment of depression.