TY - JOUR
T1 - Current status of model predictions of volatile organic compounds and impacts on surface ozone predictions during summer in China
AU - She, Yongliang
AU - Li, Jingyi
AU - Lyu, Xiaopu
AU - Guo, Hai
AU - Qin, Momei
AU - Xie, Xiaodong
AU - Gong, Kangjia
AU - Ye, Fei
AU - Mao, Jianjiong
AU - Huang, Lin
AU - Hu, Jianlin
N1 - This research has been supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (grant no. 2022YFC3701000, Task 5) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 92044302, 42021004).
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2024 Yongliang She et al.
PY - 2024/1/10
Y1 - 2024/1/10
N2 - Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play a crucial role in the formation of tropospheric ozone (O3) and secondary organic aerosols. VOC emissions are generally considered to have larger uncertainties compared to other pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Although predictions of O3 and PM2.5 have been extensively evaluated in air quality modeling studies, there has been limited reporting on the evaluation of VOCs, mainly due to a lack of routine VOC measurements at multiple sites. In this study, we utilized VOC measurements from the "Towards an Air Toxic Management System in China"(ATMSYC) project at 28 sites across China and assessed the predicted VOC concentrations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with the widely used Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC). The ratio of predicted to observed total VOCs was found to be 0.74 ± 0.40, with underpredictions ranging from 2.05 to 50.61 ppbv (5.77 % to 85.40 %) at 24 sites. A greater bias in VOC predictions was observed in industrial cities in the north and southwest, such as Jinan, Shijiazhuang, Lanzhou, Chengdu, and Guiyang. In terms of different VOC components, alkanes, alkenes, non-naphthalene aromatics (ARO2MN), alkynes, and formaldehyde (HCHO) had prediction-to-observation ratios of 0.53 ± 0.38, 0.51 ± 0.48, 0.31 ± 0.38, 0.41 ± 0.47, and 1.21 ± 1.61, respectively. Sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the impact of the VOC prediction bias on O3 predictions. While emission adjustments improved the model performance for VOCs, resulting in a change in the ratio of total VOCs to 0.86 ± 0.47, they also exacerbated O3 overprediction relative to the base case by 0.62 % to 6.27 % across the sites. This study demonstrates that current modeling setups and emission inventories are likely to underpredict VOC concentrations, and this underprediction of VOCs contributes to lower O3 predictions in China.
AB - Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play a crucial role in the formation of tropospheric ozone (O3) and secondary organic aerosols. VOC emissions are generally considered to have larger uncertainties compared to other pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Although predictions of O3 and PM2.5 have been extensively evaluated in air quality modeling studies, there has been limited reporting on the evaluation of VOCs, mainly due to a lack of routine VOC measurements at multiple sites. In this study, we utilized VOC measurements from the "Towards an Air Toxic Management System in China"(ATMSYC) project at 28 sites across China and assessed the predicted VOC concentrations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with the widely used Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC). The ratio of predicted to observed total VOCs was found to be 0.74 ± 0.40, with underpredictions ranging from 2.05 to 50.61 ppbv (5.77 % to 85.40 %) at 24 sites. A greater bias in VOC predictions was observed in industrial cities in the north and southwest, such as Jinan, Shijiazhuang, Lanzhou, Chengdu, and Guiyang. In terms of different VOC components, alkanes, alkenes, non-naphthalene aromatics (ARO2MN), alkynes, and formaldehyde (HCHO) had prediction-to-observation ratios of 0.53 ± 0.38, 0.51 ± 0.48, 0.31 ± 0.38, 0.41 ± 0.47, and 1.21 ± 1.61, respectively. Sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the impact of the VOC prediction bias on O3 predictions. While emission adjustments improved the model performance for VOCs, resulting in a change in the ratio of total VOCs to 0.86 ± 0.47, they also exacerbated O3 overprediction relative to the base case by 0.62 % to 6.27 % across the sites. This study demonstrates that current modeling setups and emission inventories are likely to underpredict VOC concentrations, and this underprediction of VOCs contributes to lower O3 predictions in China.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85184039499&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.5194/acp-24-219-2024
DO - 10.5194/acp-24-219-2024
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85184039499
SN - 1680-7316
VL - 24
SP - 219
EP - 233
JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
IS - 1
ER -