Cross-hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity in the Pacific Northwest

Chi-Keung WOO*, Ira Horowitz, Arne Olson, Andrew Debenedictis, David Miller, Jack Moore

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper develops a linear regression model for using actively traded NYMEX natural gas futures as a cross-hedge against electricity spot-price risk in the Pacific Northwest and for pricing the forward contracts in the presence of temperature and hydro risks. Our approach comports with reality and provides power purchasers with an effective instrument through which they can hedge their electricity bets through natural gas futures. It also demonstrates the sharp month-to-month variations in the natural gas futures' optimal hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness. Finally, it finds significant risk premiums in the Pacific Northwest forward prices, supporting the hypothesis that forward-contract buyers are relatively more risk-averse than sellers.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)265-279
Number of pages15
JournalManagerial and Decision Economics
Volume32
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2011

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Business and International Management
  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Management of Technology and Innovation

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