Correlation between meteorological factors and mumps incidence in Beijing from 1990 to 2004

Objective: To analyze the relationship between mumps incidence and meteorological factors during the same and previous periods according to the five circuits and six qi theory of Chinese medicine and establish regression forecast equations to estimate mumps incidence in Beijing.

Methods: The data of mumps incidence from 1990 to 2004 collected from Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the data of meteorological factors (including daily average temperature, daily average wind speed, daily average precipitation, daily average relative humidity, daily average vapor pressure, daily average low cloud cover and daily average degree of comfort) from 1987 to 2004 collected from Beijing Meteorological Observatory were analyzed. The Spearman correlation and stepwise multiple regression were adopted to analyze the data.

Results: The incidence of mumps was related to wind speed, precipitation, and low cloud cover in current years. The stepwise regression equation was successfully established and its correlation coefficient was 0.890. The incidence of mumps was related to wind speed, precipitation and low cloud cover one year ago. The stepwise regression equation was successfully established and its correlation coefficient was 0.781. The incidence of mumps was related to wind speed, precipitation, low cloud cover, degree of comfort and vapor pressure two years ago. The stepwise regression equation was successfully established and its correlation coefficient was 0.956. The incidence of mumps was related to wind speed, degree of comfort and vapor pressure three years ago. The stepwise regression equation was successfully established and its correlation coefficient was 0.838.

Conclusion: The incidence of mumps in Beijing area is related to climatic changes in current years and the past three years, which verifies the theory of five circuits and six qi, especially the theory of ‘pestilence occurring after three years’.

目的：根据中医五运六气理论，探讨流行性腮腺炎发病与同期及前期（包括1年前，2年前，3年前）气象因素的相关性，并建立回归方程预测北京地区流行性腮腺炎的发病情况。

方法：利用北京地区1990年－2004年15年的流行性腮腺炎发病数据和1987年－2004年18年的气象数据，进行Spearman相关分析和多元逐步回归分析。

结果：流行性腮腺炎发病与当年的风速、降水量和低云量相关，利用当年气象因素可成功建立多元逐步回归预测方程，相关系数为0.890。流行性腮腺炎发病与1年前的风速、降水量和低云量相关，利用１年前气象因素可成功建立多元逐步回归预测方程，相关系数为0.781。流行性腮腺炎发病与2年前的风速、降水量、低云量、舒适度和水汽压相关，利用2年前气象因素可成功建立多元逐步回归预测方程，相关系数为0.956。流行性腮腺炎发病与3年前的风速、舒适度和水汽压相关，利用3年前气象因素可成功建立多元逐步回归预测方程，相关系数为0.838。

结论：北京地区流行性腮腺炎发病与当年及前三年的气候变化均具有相关性，在一定程度上验证了运气理论，尤其是＂三年化疫＂理论中关于传染病发病与前期气候相关的论述。