TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change and population aging may impact the benefits of improved air quality on cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou
T2 - epidemiological evidence and policy implications
AU - Wu, Chenguang
AU - Dong, Hang
AU - Ou, Jiajun
AU - Li, Dan
AU - Song, Yuanyuan
AU - Luo, Chunliang
AU - Yu, Zixun
AU - Liang, Boheng
AU - Yu, Yingxin
AU - Qin, Pengzhe
AU - Qi, Zenghua
AU - Cai, Zongwei
N1 - This work was supported by the General Research Fund from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (12303320), Special Funds for the Cultivation of Guangdong College Students' Scientific and Technological Innovation, “Climbing Program” Special Funds (pdjh2023a0162), the National Key Research and Development Project (2019YFC1804604), Guangzhou Science and Technology Planning Project (202201011617), Key R&D Plans of Guangzhou Science and Technology (202206010190).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 RSC.
PY - 2023/1/13
Y1 - 2023/1/13
N2 - Air pollution is the primary environmental risk factor contributing to global cardiovascular mortality. In China, a series of air pollution control policies launched in 2013 have led to substantial improvements in air quality over the past 10 years. However, the health benefits of improved air quality on cardiovascular mortality remain unclear under the combined effects of climate change and population aging. In this study, we investigated dynamic changes in the contribution of air pollution, meteorological conditions and aging to cardiovascular mortality over 9 years (2013-2021) in Guangzhou, China using generalized additive models and machine learning analysis. Although the air quality in Guangzhou has continuously improved since 2013, cardiovascular mortality has increased since 2019 and approached 2013 levels in 2021. Use of the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) approach to interpret the model outputs revealed that meteorological factors have gradually replaced air pollutants as the main environmental factors affecting cardiovascular mortality since 2016. Concurrently, the impact of population aging on cardiovascular mortality has increased year-on-year. Our results provide important insights into improved air quality related health benefits that could aid development of an early warning service system and national environmental and public health policy related to climate change and population aging.
AB - Air pollution is the primary environmental risk factor contributing to global cardiovascular mortality. In China, a series of air pollution control policies launched in 2013 have led to substantial improvements in air quality over the past 10 years. However, the health benefits of improved air quality on cardiovascular mortality remain unclear under the combined effects of climate change and population aging. In this study, we investigated dynamic changes in the contribution of air pollution, meteorological conditions and aging to cardiovascular mortality over 9 years (2013-2021) in Guangzhou, China using generalized additive models and machine learning analysis. Although the air quality in Guangzhou has continuously improved since 2013, cardiovascular mortality has increased since 2019 and approached 2013 levels in 2021. Use of the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) approach to interpret the model outputs revealed that meteorological factors have gradually replaced air pollutants as the main environmental factors affecting cardiovascular mortality since 2016. Concurrently, the impact of population aging on cardiovascular mortality has increased year-on-year. Our results provide important insights into improved air quality related health benefits that could aid development of an early warning service system and national environmental and public health policy related to climate change and population aging.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85147278052&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1039/d2va00303a
DO - 10.1039/d2va00303a
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85147278052
SN - 2754-7000
VL - 2
SP - 215
EP - 226
JO - Environmental Science: Advances
JF - Environmental Science: Advances
IS - 2
ER -