Assessing the spatiotemporal malaria transmission intensity with heterogeneous risk factors: A modeling study in Cambodia

Mutong Liu, Yang Liu*, Ly Po, Shang Xia, Rekol Huy, Xiao Nong Zhou, Jiming Liu*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Malaria control can significantly benefit from a holistic and precise way of quantitatively measuring the transmission intensity, which needs to incorporate spatiotemporally varying risk factors. In this study, we conduct a systematic investigation to characterize malaria transmission intensity by taking a spatiotemporal network perspective, where nodes capture the local transmission intensities resulting from dominant vector species, the population density, and land cover, and edges describe the cross-region human mobility patterns. The inferred network enables us to accurately assess the transmission intensity over time and space from available empirical observations. Our study focuses on malaria-severe districts in Cambodia. The malaria transmission intensities determined using our transmission network reveal both qualitatively and quantitatively their seasonal and geographical characteristics: the risks increase in the rainy season and decrease in the dry season; remote and sparsely populated areas generally show higher transmission intensities than other areas. Our findings suggest that: the human mobility (e.g., in planting/harvest seasons), environment (e.g., temperature), and contact risk (coexistences of human and vector occurrence) contribute to malaria transmission in spatiotemporally varying degrees; quantitative relationships between these influential factors and the resulting malaria transmission risk can inform evidence-based tailor-made responses at the right locations and times.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)253-269
Number of pages17
JournalInfectious Disease Modelling
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2023

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Health Policy
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Applied Mathematics

User-Defined Keywords

  • Computational approach
  • Heterogeneous risk factors
  • Malaria
  • Spatiotemporal network
  • Transmission intensity assessment

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