ASC 606, revenue uncertainty, and cost of debt: short-term and long-term consequences

This paper examines the consequences of adopting ASC 606, a new revenue recognition standard, on revenue uncertainty and debt contracting, using a quasi-natural experiment surrounding its adoption. We find that affected firms experience an increase in revenue uncertainty, as indicated by both higher analyst forecast dispersion and absolute analyst forecast error. Consequently, the cost of debt rises for affected firms, as covenants are used less in debt contracts reflecting a decreased effectiveness of earnings-based covenants. The effect is mitigated by relationship lending. We also show that the decreased use of earnings-based covenants as well as the increased cost of debt dissipate over time, while the increase in revenue uncertainty persists. Our analyses document a costly transition toward a more principles-based accounting standard but also suggest that some costs are transient.