Annual precipitation trends and flood estimation: a case of Shanghai City in China

Md Ayatullah Khan*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Abstract

This study analyzed the daily annual precipitation data for Shanghai from 1991 to 2023, sourced from the Global Historical Climatology Network daily (GHCNd). The aim was to assess the annual precipitation trends and flood estimation and explore the relationship between return periods and annual maximum precipitation in Shanghai, China. The Mann-Kendall test identified trends in annual precipitation, while flood estimation involved calculating maximum rainfall, probability of exceedance, and return periods. Linear regression assessed the significance of the link between maximum precipitation and return periods. Results indicated a significant increase in annual precipitation over time (p <0.05). Most annual maximum precipitation events had return periods between one and five years. The highest recorded maximum precipitation was 189.5 millimeters in 2013, with a return period of 34 years. Additionally, maximum rainfall was strongly correlated with return periods (p <0.01), indicating that higher return periods are associated with increased maximum rainfall.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1254-1262
Number of pages9
JournalUrban Water Journal
Volume21
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2024

Scopus Subject Areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Water Science and Technology

User-Defined Keywords

  • Annual precipitation
  • climate change
  • flood
  • MK test
  • return period

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