Aggravating O₃ pollution due to NO_x emission control in eastern China

During the past five years, China has witnessed a rapid drop of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) owing to the wildly-applied rigorous emission control strategies across the country. However, ozone (O₃) pollution was found to steadily deteriorate in most part of eastern China, especially in developed regions such as Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ), Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) and Pearl River Delta region (PRD). To shed more light on current O₃ pollution and its responses to precursor emissions, we integrate satellite retrievals, ground-based measurements together with regional numerical simulation in this study. It is indicated by multiple sets of observational data that NO_x in eastern China has declined more than 25% from 2012 to 2016. Based on chemical transport modeling, we find that O₃ formation in eastern China has changed from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) sensitive regime to the mixed sensitive regime due to NO_x reductions, substantially contributing to the recent increasing trend in urban O₃. In addition, such transitions tend to bring about an ~1–1.5 h earlier peak of net O₃ formation rate. We further studied the O₃ precursors relationships by conducting tens of sensitivity simulations to explore potential ways for effective O₃ mitigation. It is suggested that the past control measures that only focused on NO_x may not work or even aggravate O₃ pollution in the city clusters. In practice, O₃ pollution in the three regions is expected to be effectively mitigated only when the reduction ratio of VOCs/NO_x is greater than 2:1, indicating VOCs-targeted control is a more practical and feasible way.