A Successful Defence: the 2016 National Assembly for Wales Election

Roger Scully*, Jac Larner

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

    8 Citations (Scopus)


    The fifth election to the Welsh Assembly was held in May 2016. This article first outlines the political background to the election, before going on to assess the content and conduct of the election campaign. The results are then examined in detail: these show that while Labour's vote share fell considerably, it comfortably retained its position as the largest party in the Assembly. None of Labour's traditional rivals made significant ground, while United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) replaced the Liberal Democrats as the fourth party in the Assembly. Welsh Election Study data is then used to model the main factors shaping patterns of party support in the election. Modelling of vote choice in Wales in 2016 points to the continuing importance relevance of factors associated with 'valence politics' models, in particular leadership. Finally, the conclusion assesses the implications of the election for the future of party politics in Wales.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)507-529
    Number of pages23
    JournalParliamentary Affairs
    Issue number3
    Early online date3 Dec 2016
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 2017

    Scopus Subject Areas

    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Law

    User-Defined Keywords

    • Conservative party
    • Devolved election
    • Labour party
    • Plaid cymru
    • UKIP
    • Valence politics
    • Wales


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