针对香港地区2021年秋冬季COVID-19的趋势预测及中医防治建议

该研究以中医传统智慧—五运六气理论为依据，选择香港地区2020年1月18日（首例报告时间）—2021年8月31日COVID-19（coronavirusdisease2019）的报告发病数据，及近30年的气象数据[即平均气压（hpa）、平均气温（℃）、最高气温（℃）、最低气温（℃）、平均相对湿度（%）、平均云量（%）、平均风速（km/h）、总雨量（mm）、总日照（h）共9项气象要素的日均值]。采用Logistic生长模型和指数平滑预测法，对2021年秋冬季（即9月1日-12月31日，含处暑、白露、秋分、寒露、霜降、立冬、小雪、大雪、冬至共九个节气）的COVID-19发病与气象变化情况进行预测。结果发现：今年秋季的白露节气（9月7日—9月22日）以及冬季的小雪—大雪节气（11月22日—12月20日）为香港地区COVID-19可能出现波动的两个时段。其中，脾虚湿胜及阳虚体质的人群尤应加强防护，中医推荐药物、针刺、艾灸、食疗等综合疗法进行早期预防及治疗。

In this study, based on the wisdom of traditional Chinese medicine-the theory of the five circuits and six Qi, the reported incidence data of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong between January 18, 2020 (time of first report) and August 31, 2021, and the meteorological data of the past 30 years [i.e. mean air pressure (hpa), mean temperature (℃), maximum temperature (℃), minimum temperature (℃), mean relative humidity (%), mean cloud cover (%), mean wind speed (km/h), total rainfall (mm), and total sunshine (h)], as daily averages of nine meteorological factors. The Logistic growth model and exponential smoothing prediction method were used to predict the onset and meteorological changes of COVID-19 in autumn and winter of 2021 (i.e. September 1-December 31, including Limit of Heat, White Dew, Autumnal Equinox, Cold Dew, Frost's Descent, Beginning of Winter, Slight Snow, Great Snow and Winter Solstice). The results revealed that the White Dew (September 7-September 22) in autumn and the Light Snow-Great Snow Festival (November 22-December 20) in winter are the two periods when COVID-19 is likely to fluctuate in Hong Kong. In particular, people with spleen deficiency and dampness and Yang deficiency should be better protected. Traditional Chinese medicine practitioners recommend a combination of medicine, acupuncture, moxibustion and food therapy for early prevention and treatment.