干支运气与北京地区60年实际气候变化的吻合性研究

目的：验证主运与客运、主气与客气及运气相合等3组推演模式推演出的气候变化与北京地区60年实际气候变化的符合情况。方法：首先根据主运与客运、主气与客气及运气相合等3组推演模式，计算出每一组60年的每一年符合率。计算出3组60年的整体符合率，采用x~2检验有无统计学差异。根据每年不同符合率分为4个等级，如符合率90%~100%为完全符合，60%~89%为基本符合，30%~59%为部分符合，0%~29%为不符合。计算出3组的4个等级符合率的符合年数，采用非参数检验有无统计学差异。结果：主运与客运、主气与客气及运气相合模式与60年实际气候变化的整体符合率分别是48.2%、48.6%和56%，三者差异没有统计学意义（P＞0.05）；运气相合组4个等级符合率的符合年数与主运与客运组、主气与客气组分别比较，差异均有统计学意义（P＜0.01）；主运与客运组4个等级符合率的符合年数与主气与客气组比较，差异没有统计学意义（P＞0.01）。结论：运气相合模式推演的气候变化与实际气候变化吻合性比较一致，说明三者在实际气候变化推算应用中，应该以运气相合模式为核心，主运与客运模式和主气与客气模式为辅。

Objective: To deduce the coincidence between climatic changes deduced by three deduction modes, including dominant yun + guest yun, dominant qi + guest qi and yun-qi consistency, and actual climatic changes in Beijing for 60 years. Methods: Firstly, the coincidence rate of each year for 60 years was calculated in the three deduction modes. The overall coincidence rate in 60 years was calculated and the statistical difference was detected with X2 test. The coincidence rate of each year was divided into 4 grades; coincidence rate of 90%-100% was full coincidence,60%-89% was basic coincidence, 30% 59% was partial coincidence and 0%-29% was non-coincidence. The coincidence year numbers of the 4 grades in three modes were calculated, and the statistical difference was detected with non-parametric test. Results: The overall coincidence rates between three modes and 60-year actual climatic changes were 48.2%, 48.6% and 56% respectively and the difference had no statistical significance (P ＞ 0.05). The difference in coincidence year numbers of the 4 grades had statistical significance (P ＜ 0.01) between yun-qi consistency mode and dominant yun + guest yun mode or dominant qi + guest qi mode. The comparison in coincidence year numbers of the 4 grades showed that the difference had nostatistical significance (P ＞0.01) between dominant yun + guest yun mode and dominant qi + guest qi mode. Conclusion: The climatic changes deduced by yun-qi consistency mode are quite consistent with actual climatic changes, which indicates that in the application of three deduction modes for deducing actual climatic changes, yun-qi consistency mode is taken as the core and other two modes, as supplement.