天干岁运60年与北京地区60年实际气温变化的吻合性研究

目的：以“定性”和“定量”的方法研究天干岁运60年与北京地区60年实际气温变化是否吻合。方法：对北京地区60年气温数据采用“定性”和“定量”两种方法进行比较：第一，按“十天干”“五运”和“太过不及”模式将60年各自归类，计算出3种模式的日平均气温均值；第二，定性比较，3种模式的日平均气温均值高于60年日平均气温均值为热，低于则为寒。第三，定量比较，对3种模式的日平均气温均值进行非参数检验或方差分析，采用Mann-Whitney U方法或SNK法进行多重比较。结果：天干岁运60年与北京地区60年实际气温变化相比较，定性吻合，定量不吻合，其气温变化差异没有统计学意义(P＞0.05)。结论：干支运气所推算出气候变化模式在定性(寒热之性)方面是有意义的，但无定量(气温差异)的统计学意义。

Objective: To study the agreement of Heavenly Stems 60 years with the changes of actual temperature of 60 years in Beijing with "qualitative" and "quantitative" method. Methods: To compare the temperature data of 60 years in Beijing using "qualitative" and "quantitative" methods. First, 60 years are classified according to "ten Heavenly Stems ", "Five Movements" and "Too much and less" models, and calculates the daily average temperature of three modes; Second, Qualitative comparison: the daily average temperature of the three modes higher than the average daily temperature of 60 years can be called heat, lower than that called cold; Third, Quantitative comparison: to have non-parametric tests or analysis of variance of the three modes of daily average temperature with the Mann-Whitney U method or SNK test for multiple comparison. Results: The Heavenly Stems 60 years and 60 years of actual temperature changes of the Beijing area are consistent in qualitatively study. They are not consistent in quantitative study. The temperature changes were not statistically significant (P＞0.05). Conclusion: the models of the climate changes calculated by Heavenly Stems is meaningful in qualitative study (cold and heat), but they have no statistical significance in quantitative study (temperature difference)