基于“3年化疫”理论探讨气象因素与北京地区痢疾发病的关系

目的：基于"3年化疫"理论研究北京地区痢疾发病与3年前及当年气象因素的相关性。方法：利用北京地区1970—2004年35年的痢疾发病数据和同期气象数据，进行相关和回归的统计学分析，探讨痢疾发病与3年前及当年气象因素之间的相关性。结果：痢疾发病与3年前的气温、风速和相对湿度具有显著相关性，且具有统计学意义（P<0.05）；进入逐步回归方程的是二之气的风速，回归方程为Y=-260 768.31+113 844.99X2（2）。痢疾发病与当年的气温和风速具有显著相关性，且具有统计学意义（P<0.05）；进入逐步回归方程的是初之气的风速，回归方程为Y=-175 561.65+89 055.08X2（1）。结论：痢疾发病与3年前的气候变化具有相关性，"3年化疫"理论可用于痢疾发病的预测。

Objective: To study the correlation between the incidence of dysentery in Beijing area and meteorological factors three years ago and in current year based on theory of "pestilence occurring after three years". Methods: The data of dysentery incidence in Beijing area from 1970 to 2004 (35 years) and meteorological data at the same period were given correlation, regression and statistics analysis. The correlation between the incidence of dysentery and meteorological factors three years ago and in current year was discussed. Results: The incidence of dysentery was significantly related to temperature, wind speed and relative humidity three years ago (P<0.05). The wind speed of the second qi (from six qi in theory of five circuits and six qi) was chosen into stepwise regression equation, and regression equation was Y=-260768.31+113844.99X2 (2).The incidence of dysentery was significantly related to temperature and wind speed in current year (P<0.05). The wind speed of the first qi was chosen into stepwise regression equation, and regression equation was Y=-175 561.65+89 055.08X2 (1). Conclusion: The incidence of dysentery is correlated to climatic changes three years ago, and theory of "pestilence occurring after three years" can used for forecasting the incidence of dysentery.