基于运气理论探讨伤寒副伤寒与气象因素的相关性并建立预测模型

目的：依据中医运气理论研究北京市伤寒副伤寒发病与当年及3年前气象因素的相关性，并建立人工神经网络的医疗气象预测模型。方法：提取北京市1970-2004年35年的气象数据和伤寒副伤寒发病数据，采用描述性统计分析Spearman相关分析和BP人工神经网络分析，探讨伤寒副伤寒发病与当年及3年前气象因素的相关性。结果：伤寒副伤寒发病在各年度呈不均衡分布，在六气时段内集中在三之气、四之气高发。其发病与当年及3年前的平均气温、平均风速和平均相对湿度具有显著相关性（P＜0.05）。在气象预测模型中，3年前的平均风速和平均相对湿度是重要影响因素;当年的平均相对湿度是重要影响因素。结论：伤寒副伤寒发病与当年及3年前的气象因素之间均存在确切的相关性，并可建立预测模型。运气理论在传染病发病预测方面具有深入研究的价值。

Objective: To study the correlation between the incidence of typhoid/paratyphoid and meteorological factors in the same year and three years ago based on TCM theory of five circuits and six qi, and establish a medical meteorological forecast model of artificial neural network. Methods: The data of the incidence of typhoid/ paratyphoid and meteorological factors were extracted from 1970 to 2004 (35 years) in Beijing, and the correlation between the incidence of typhoid/paratyphoid and meteorological factors in the same year and three years ago was investigated by applying descriptive statistical analysis, Spearman correlation analysis and BP artificial neural network analysis. Results: The incidence of typhoid/ paratyphoid showed a disproportion distribution in each year, and occurred frequently during the periods of third qi and fourth qi. The incidence of typhoid/ paratyphoid was significantly correlated to average temperature, average wind speed and average relative humidity (P＜0.05) in the same year and three years ago. In the meteorological forecast model, average wind speed and average relative humidity three years ago and average relative humidity in the same year were important influence factors. Conclusion: The incidence of typhoid/ paratyphoid is certainly correlated to the meteorological factors in the same year and three years ago, which can be established a forecast model. The theory of five circuits and six qi has value in in-depth study of predicting the incidence of epidemic diseases.