基于“三年化疫”理论探讨香港地区水痘发病与不同时期气象变化的关联性

目的:基于五运六气的"三年化疫"理论,研究香港地区水痘发病与当年及1～3年前气象变化的关联性,并建立气象-水痘发病预测模型。方法:利用香港1999—2019年共21年的水痘发病数据和1996—2019年共24年的气象数据,描述水痘高发与前期气候异常之间的关联性,并进一步通过BP人工神经网络,从不同时间维度建立气象-水痘发病的预测模型。结果:水痘在每年的终之气和初之气高发,在水痘高发年份中,有80%与1～3年前的"刚柔失守"异常气候有关。利用前期气象可以提高水痘发病模型的预测精度,其中以"当年+1年前(共2年)"的综合气象数据所建立的模型效果最佳(预测精度为55%),当中贡献度最大的气象要素为太阳总辐射。结论:香港地区水痘发病与前期气象变化具有相关性,提示"三年化疫"理论有助于建立水痘发病的早期预警模型。

Objective: To study the correlation between the incidence of varicella in Hong Kong and meteorological factors in that year and 1-3 years ago based on the "epidemic occurring after three years" theory of five circuits and six Qi, and to establish the meteorological-varicella prediction model. Methods: Based on the data of varicella incidence in Hong Kong from 1999 to 2019 and the meteorological data from 1996 to 2019, the relationship between the high incidence ofvaricella and the previous abnormal climate changes was described. Furthermore, the prediction model of meteorological-varicella incidence from different time dimensions was established by using BP artificial neural network. Results: The peak of varicella incidence was appeared in the last Qi and first Qi each year. The correlation rate between the high incidence of varicella and the abnormal climate of "hard and soft disorder" 1-3 years ago was 80%. The prediction accuracy of varicella model can be improved by using the early meteorological data, and the model using the comprehensive meteorological factors from the current year to one year ago (two years in total) was the best one with an accuracy rate of 55%. The most important meteorological factor was the global solar radiation. Conclusion: The incidence of varicella in Hong Kong was associated with the early meteorological changes. The theory of "epidemic occurring after three years" was useful to establish the early warning model of varicella prediction.