基于“三年化疫”理论探讨痢疾发病与气候变化的关联性

目的：依据"三年化疫"理论研究北京市痢疾发病与3年前气候变化的关联性。方法：提取北京市1970年-2004年35年的痢疾高发年份，分析其3年前的气候变化特点，依据"三年化疫"理论对"异常气候—痢疾发病"进行吻合度评价。结果：痢疾的高发与3年前的异常气候变化有关,尤其是年干为戊、癸、辛的年份。结论：痢疾发病与3年前的气候变化具有相关性，"三年化疫"理论对于痢疾发病的预测具有一定指导意义。

Objective: Based on the theory of ’transformation of plague in three years’, to investigate the relationship between the incidence of dysentery and climate changes three years ago. Methods: By extraction of 35 years of dysentery high-risk years in Beijing from 1970 to 2004, and analysis its climate change characteristics three years ago, to evaluate ’the relationship of abnormal climate and dysentery disease’ based on the theory of ’transformation of plague in three years’. Results: The high incidence of dysentery was related to the abnormal climate changes three years ago, especially in the Niangan years of wu, gui, xin. Conclusion: The incidence of dysentery was related to the climate changes three years ago, the theory of ’transformation of plague in three years’ could predict the dysentery disease.