基于“三年化疫”理论探讨北京地区几种呼吸道传染病与异常气候变化的关联性

目的：依据中医运气学说的“三年化疫＂理论研究北京地区几种呼吸道传染病的高发与3年前出现异常气候变化年份之间的关联性。方法：提取北京地区1970年～2004年35年中实际气候与干支气候推演不符合的年份，视为异常气候年；并与其后3年北京地区几种常见呼吸道传染病的高发情况作关联性分析，主要依据中医五行理论和运气学说的“三年化疫＂理论对“异常气候—传染病高发＂进行吻合度评价。结果：北京地区流脑、猩红热、百日咳、麻疹的高发与3年前的异常气候变化有关，尤其是年干为辛、庚、戊、癸的年份。结论：中医运气学说的“三年化疫＂理论提示呼吸道传染病的高发可能与3年前气候的异常变化有关。

Objective: To study the association between the high incidence of several respiratory diseases and abnormal climate changes in Beijing three years ago, which was defined according to the Yunqi theory of ‘pestilence occurring after three years’. Methods: In the study period (1970~2004), years of abnormal climate change were extracted and then the relationship between their weather characteristic and the high incidence of several common respiratory diseases after three years was analyzed, which was mainly according to the Chinese medicine theory of ‘five phases’ and ‘five circuits and six qi’. Results: The high incidence of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, scarlet fever, pertussis and measles correlated to the irregular weather changes three years ago, particularly in the years of heavenly stems with Xin, Geng, Wu, Gui. Conclusion: The high incidence of respiratory diseases may be related to the weather condition three years ago.