北京地区天符、太乙天符年份气象特征及与传染病流行的关联性研究

目的以1970—2004年天符、太乙天符年份为研究对象，探讨其运气特点与北京地区实际气候变化的吻合性以及对部分传染病流行情况的影响。方法收集北京地区1970—2004年35年的气象资料及部分传染病数据资料，并提取其中的天符、太乙天符年（即1975年、1976年、1977年、1978年、1979年、1998年）共6年的相应数据资料，从气象变化和传染病流行两方面分别与天符、太乙天符年的运气特点进行吻合性分析，计算出符合率。结果天符、太乙天符6年的干支运气特点与实际气象比较，基本符合率达83%；统计11种传染病各病六气高发时段的发病数发现，天符、太乙天符年的发病数高于35年同期发病数均值的传染病有7种，符合率为64%；选取35年间任意6年平气年与天符、太乙天符6年对比发现，11种传染病中有6种传染病的特殊年发病率高于平气年发病率，且比较差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05），符合率为55%；统计死亡数据完整的9种传染病在35年间的死亡率高发年份发现，天符、太乙天符年约占其中的40%；用选取的6年平气年作对比发现，9种传染病中有7种传染病的特殊年死亡率高于平气年死亡率，且比较差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05），符合率为78%。结论北京地区的实际气象变化及部分传染病流行情况基本符合运气同化年份中天符、太乙天符年的运气特点推测，应对这些特殊年份加以重视，为传染病的预防及时有据地采取措施。

Objective To study the coincidence between Yun-qi of Tianfu or Taiyi Tianfu years and actual climatic changes in Beijing as well as its impact on several epidemics. Methods The data of Tianfu and Taiyi Tianfu years（ 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1998） were selected based on the database of meteorological factors and infectious diseases during 1970 to 2004. The coincidence evaluation between meteorological characteristics and epidemics of Tianfu or Taiyi Tianfu years were analyzed, and the accordance rates were calculated. Results The overall coincidence rate between Ganzhi Yun-qi feature of Tianfu or Taiyi Tianfu years and actual weather condition was 83%. Compared the morbidity of 11 different infectious diseases during the high incidence period of six climatic factors, there were 7 kinds of infectious diseases with higher morbidity in Tianfu or Taiyi Tianfu years, as compared with those at the same period of 35 years, coincidence rate was 64%. Compared between six years of Pingqi years and Tianfu or Taiyi Tianfu years, there were six kinds of infectious diseases has higher morbidity in Tianfu or Taiyi Tianfu years than those in Pingqi years, the coincidence rate was 55% with statistical difference（ P ＜ 0.05）. There were nine kinds of infectious diseases has higher heath rates in Tianfu or Taiyi Tianfu years（40%）. There were seven kinds of infectious diseases has higher heath rates in Tianfu or Taiyi Tianfu years as compared with those in Pingqi years, the coincidence rate was 78% with statistical difference（ P ＜ 0.05）. Conclusion The climatic changes and epidemics in Beijing are quite consistent with Yun-qi assumption of Yianfu or Yaiyi Tianfu years.