不一样的杠杆——从国际比较看杠杆上升的现象、原因与影响

本文以次贷危机前美欧国家的杠杆率上升为参照，比较了中国2009-2016年期间中国杠杆率上升的现象、构成、原因及其对实体经济的影响。较高的货币增速、地方政府和国有企业预算软约束、高储蓄率等旧原因难以解释中国近年来杠杆率的快速上升。从制造到服务的经济结构转型特定背景下，债务扩张带来的真实GDP增速和通胀增速边际效力下降，带来杠杆率上升。应对中国式高杠杆，宏观层面重点是避免通缩，结构层面重点是放松服务业管制、平衡中央和地方关系并推动相关投融资机制改革、以及其他释放经济增长活力的改革措施避免政府被动加杠杆。

We investigate the components, causes and impacts of China's financial leverage increase from 2009 to 2016, and compare them with the experience of United States and European economies before 2008. Money growth, soft budget constraints of local governments and SOEs, high saving rate were in place before 2009, and can't be solid causes for debt leverage increase. In the context of economic structural transformation from manufacturing to service, marginal contribution of debt growth to nominal GDP growth declined due to mismatch between supply and demand in both manufacture and service sectors. To stabilize China's financial leverage, China need stability policies to get away from deflation, and structural policies to maintain growth engine, such as deregulations in service sectors, better discipline and financing instruments for infrastructure projects.